Germany Becomes Largest New Bilateral Aid Donor to Ukraine as US Support Drops 99 Percent

Analysis
Berlin's aid is larger than most Western publics assume but smaller than its own headline figure implies, and that gap weakens its position in burden-sharing talks. Germany has supplied the largest volume of new bilateral allocations since January 2025, mostly military, as new US allocations nearly ceased. The €100 billion figure folds in refugee benefits spent at home and future commitments that may never be paid, so it cannot be checked against deliveries. Berlin's halt to detailed military data publication in June 2025 leaves Kyiv and partner capitals unable to plan around German deliveries. Kiel's method counts only aid that can be dated, valued and traced, so weak German disclosure may understate true deliveries and exaggerate the gap. Confidence is high because Kiel is the primary origin of the tracker data and policy brief, and Inkstick's agreeing figures add no independent confirmation, since it repackages Kiel, though both have strong reliability records.