Global Markets & Energy — 2026-04-08
Oil Plunges 19% and Global Stocks Surge on Iran Ceasefire Announcement
West Texas Intermediate crude fell as much as 19% and Brent dropped 14% to $93.90/barrel after the US-Iran ceasefire announcement, the largest single-day oil decline in nearly six years. S&P 500 futures rose over 2.5%, Dow futures spiked 1,000 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures jumped nearly 3%. The rally reflected investor relief at the prospective resumption of oil flows through the
Analysis
The 19% WTI drop is the largest single-day oil decline since 2020. However, the rally may overestimate the ceasefire's economic impact:Hormuz transit dropped from 130 ships/day to 6, and shipping insurers have not yet re-rated the strait. The ceasefire is a two-week pause, not a settlement. If talks collapse April 10, markets face a sharper reversal than the initial shock. The EIA's baseline assumption that conflict does not persist past April is already at risk.
The 19% WTI drop is the largest single-day oil decline since 2020. However, the rally may overestimate the ceasefire's economic impact: