Ukrainian strikes now reach deep into Russian operational rear, Meduza geolocation mapping finds

Analysis
Ukrainian forces will likely maintain median strike depths beyond 30 km into occupied territory through mid-August, sustaining a logistics attrition campaign that forces Moscow to choose between defending Crimea's supply lines and reinforcing offensive axes in Donetsk. Moderate confidence rests on six weeks of uninterrupted campaign persistence and continued Hornet drone availability. The geolocation methodology underlying range estimates lacks independent corroboration, raising the possibility that the dataset skews toward publicized strikes and overstates median depth. The westward shift toward Kherson Oblast and Crimea's land crossings signals deliberate target-set sequencing rather than reactive opportunism. Russian air defense redeployments toward Moscow amplify southern sector vulnerability beyond what the strike count alone reflects. For Russian logistics planners, the choice between Crimea's ferry link and Kerch Bridge versus dispersed overland routing through contested ground carries no clean answer.