Middle East — 2026-08-31
Strait of Hormuz Tanker Transits Recovering But Still Below Pre-War Levels
BLUFRising transit numbers do not signal a safer corridor; at least one more vessel attack in the strait is very likely by late September.
Transits through the Strait of Hormuz rose more than 30 percent last week, with 114 recorded between August 17 and August 24 versus 87 the prior week, driven mostly by tankers and gas carriers, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence cited by USNI News 1. Westbound transits into the strait reached at least 42, up from 29 the week before, including crude tankers from Sinokor, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co./Adnoc, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait 1. Even with the increase, traffic remains a fraction of the roughly 100 vessels that transited daily before the war began on February 28, per CNN's Kpler-sourced figures, and Lloyd's List Editor-in-Chief Richard Meade said the industry is "still operating under crisis conditions" 12. Attacks on individual vessels have continued, with MT Al Salam II struck Thursday and MT Metro Venetian hit Monday off Oman, and the IMO now counts 70 ships attacked and 19 seafarers killed across the six-month conflict 1. U.S. Central Command commander Adm. Brad Cooper said the U.S. has cleared all mines from the strait's international shipping lanes and has assisted nearly 1,500 commercial vessels since the war began 1.
AnalysisVessel attacks will
very likely continue through September 23; neither the mine-clearance claim nor the volume rebound has changed Iran's underlying incentive to strike shipping. Confidence is low, given reliance on a single primary source for transit and attack data and no independent read on Iranian targeting logic: Lloyd's List Intelligence and CENTCOM figures relayed by USNI News, with other outlets merely repackaging that reporting. The shuttle-and-offshore-transfer relay model shows operators absorbing risk rather than seeing it recede, and the rebound likely reflects backlog clearance and price-driven urgency rather than genuine de-risking, especially as Iranian-linked transits rose faster than the overall total. Two months past the prior assessment's normalization date, transits still sit well below pre-war levels despite the weekly gain. Another strike before September 23 keeps insurers holding or raising war-risk premiums and shippers favoring relay routing over direct transits.
2 sources
- Strait of Hormuz Tanker Transits Up But Still Below Pre-War Levels - USNI News
- Strait of Hormuz Tanker Traffic Climbs Sharply, but It Remains Well Below Prewar Shipping Levels - International Business Times AU
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