Global Economy — 2026-07-15

IBM Shares Plunge 25 Percent as Enterprise Customers Shift Spending to AI

BLUFEnterprise capital flight from mainframes to AI infrastructure exposes IBM's software franchise to sustained margin erosion, though IBM will very likely meet its $17.2 billion Q2 guidance by July 22.

IBM shares closed down 25.2 percent on Tuesday, its largest single-day drop in 115 years and a steeper decline than the October 1987 Black Monday crash, erasing roughly $67-70 billion in market value 123. CEO Arvind Krishna told investors in a letter that clients shifted quarterly capital spending toward servers, storage and memory in late June to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases, and that "numerous large deals failed to close on the timelines we expected" 13. IBM cited weakness concentrated in its mainframe and Transaction Processing software stack, and separately noted clients were distracted by cybersecurity concerns following Anthropic's Mythos model, which it said stalled some deals 23. IBM now expects second-quarter revenue of $17.2 billion, up 1 percent and below the $17.86 billion analyst estimate, with adjusted EPS of $2.93 versus a $3.02 estimate, and it reports full results on July 22 13.

Analysis
IBM's abrupt reallocation of enterprise capital toward AI-driven infrastructure signals a structural repricing of software versus hardware demand that will pressure the mainframe and Transaction Processing franchise beyond this quarter. Krishna's letter shows the company caught flat-footed by both the pace of the capex shift and cybersecurity-driven deal hesitation tied to Anthropic's Mythos model, indicators of a vendor losing pricing leverage as customers front-run supply constraints. IBM will very likely report second-quarter revenue at or above the pre-announced $17.2 billion guidance when it posts full results on July 22. Moderate confidence reflects that the figure originates from IBM's own preliminary disclosure rather than independent verification, with the underlying demand shift still unresolved.
4 sources
  1. Arvind Krishna's Letter to IBM Investors - IBM Newsroom
  2. Here's Why IBM Had Its Worst Day Ever - Forbes
  3. IBM warns AI boom squeezing software budgets; shares sink in sector rout - Reuters
  4. IBM shares plunge 25% as customers shift spending to AI - Financial Times

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