Adversary Intelligence — 2026-10-10

Montenegro Arrests and Expels Russian Rybar Influence Network Leader and Associates

BLUFZvinchuk is likely to be expelled from Montenegro within two weeks, but Medvedev's "exchange fund" threat raises the risk of retaliatory detentions targeting Western nationals.

Montenegrin police detained five Russian citizens in Risan on Friday, including Rybar founder Mikhail Zvinchuk and his wife Valeriya, and issued expulsion orders citing national and internal security, OCCRP reported 1. Police said they seized a drone, cameras and phones, now with prosecutors in Podgorica and Kotor for forensic analysis 1. Prime Minister Milojko Spajić said on X that Montenegro had warned of destabilization attempts as it pursues EU membership 12. Rybar said the team was filming at Cetinje Monastery 1, while RIA Novosti said the group was at the airport awaiting a flight 2. Dmitry Medvedev said Russia may need to replenish its "exchange fund" with European and American citizens 3.

Analysis
Mikhail Zvinchuk is likely to be physically expelled from or to leave Montenegro by October 24, 2026. We have high confidence in this, because expulsion orders under the Law on Foreigners were issued Friday and RIA Novosti placed the group at the airport awaiting a flight. Sourcing is thinner than the four-outlet spread suggests: CNN, The Moscow Times and The Kyiv Independent appear to rely on the same police statements and local reporting. Podgorica has revoked residency, but the seized drone, cameras and phones remain with prosecutors, so a forensic finding could still produce charges. Montenegro may instead be signaling EU alignment through a fast expulsion that avoids a legal fight, which would make the equipment and any prosecution secondary. Medvedev's "exchange fund" remark signals possible retaliatory detentions of European and American citizens, and other Balkan governments may act against Rybar's regional media-school plans. If Zvinchuk leaves on schedule, Western officials can focus on Russian retaliation. If he stays in custody or is charged, prosecutors and diplomats must plan for a prolonged dispute with Moscow.

4 sources

Montenegro Arrests then Expels Russian Rybar Network Leader, Associates - OCCRP
Leading pro-Kremlin war blogger detained in Montenegro and ordered to leave country - CNN
Montenegro Expels Founder of Russian Pro-War Blog Rybar for 'Security Reasons' - The Moscow Times
Montenegro to expel founder of Russian war blog Rybar, citing security reasons - The Kyiv Independent