Experts Say US Boat Strikes Have Failed to Curb Cocaine Flow as Prices Remain Steady After 59 Strikes and 196 Deaths

Analysis
The administration is unlikely to formally reduce maritime strike tempo by September 1, 2026: Hegseth's insistence on effectiveness and the expansion to fixed-wing aircraft and armed drones signal operational deepening, not contraction. De la Espriella's probable Colombia victory adds a bilateral cooperation narrative insulating the campaign from the effectiveness critique. The Coast Guard's 511,000-pound seizure record and confirmed routing shifts could represent early supply-side pressure not yet legible in price or purity data, though traffickers absorbing the campaign strip that tactical rationale. Low confidence reflects the absence of any documented internal review or administration signaling toward a formal reduction, compounded by reliance on a single primary source. Armed services appropriators treating September 1 as the cap-authority decision point should expect continuation to entrench the program against any budget-cycle restriction.