Ukraine Launches Largest Drone Attack on Moscow Striking Kapotnya Refinery That Supplies One Third of Capital Fuel

Analysis
Ukraine's consecutive Kapotnya strikes, twice within four days and confirmed as the war's largest single-night drone barrage, signal a shift from opportunistic demonstration to deliberate attrition against infrastructure Moscow cannot replace or relocate. Kapotnya supplies roughly a third of the capital's fuel against a production base already near domestic demand ceilings. Ukraine will likely strike Moscow-area petroleum or energy infrastructure at least twice more by August 3. Lavrov's explicit retaliation warning formalizes what was previously implicit: Moscow's posture is now on the record. Moderate confidence reflects the consecutive-strike precedent and Zelenskyy's explicit public authorization, with Ukrainska Pravda as the sole primary account and Western wire coverage running parallel without independent access. Russian air defense reinforcement around Moscow's energy nodes is the competing risk to the strike cadence before August 3. If Ukraine achieves two more strikes, NATO defense ministers face immediate decisions on Patriot interceptor transfer rates.