Europe — 2026-09-19

Russia Holds First Parliamentary Elections Since Ukraine Invasion With United Russia Expected to Dominate

BLUFUnited Russia will almost certainly secure a supermajority within the next week, giving the Kremlin a manufactured mandate to sustain wartime policies amid growing economic strain.

Russians voted Friday through Sunday in State Duma elections, the first since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, with United Russia polling near 40 percent and other participating parties below 14 percent each 1. The Supreme Court removed Yabloko, the only registered antiwar party, from the party-list ballot in August after a pro-Kremlin party's lawsuit alleging foreign financing, leaving it to contest only single-mandate races 23. United Russia's list is led by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, with war correspondent Yevgeny Poddubny in the third slot; 186 Ukraine war veterans are running for Duma seats under Putin's "Time of Heroes" program 23. Voting extended to Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine including Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, and Moscow offered e-voters prize incentives. No independent election monitors or foreign observers were present, and Russia's last nonstate monitoring group closed after its leader's arrest 12. The vote coincides with reported fuel shortages exceeding 30 percent in some regions and a Levada Center poll showing a third of Russians expect rising unemployment 1.

Analysis
United Russia's dominance almost certainly translates into a supermajority the Kremlin will cite as wartime legitimacy through the next week as results are certified. That outcome was structurally guaranteed when Yabloko was removed from the party-list ballot and independent monitoring was eliminated. Moderate confidence reflects consistent reporting on vote share and ballot composition but no independent verification of turnout or count integrity. The heavier stake is domestic: fuel shortages and rising unemployment expectations give the Kremlin incentive to inflate turnout signals rather than seat totals, since seats were never contested. A post-election mobilization announcement is possible, though state media has so far denied it.

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