Soufan Center: Opening Hormuz by Force 'Fraught With Risk'; Iran's Asymmetric Tactics Defy Conventional Solutions

The Soufan Center's March 23 IntelBrief assesses that Iran has reduced Hormuz commercial transit from 120 ships/day to approximately 5-6, effectively weaponizing its Persian Gulf coastline through unmanned surface vessels, small boat swarms, and coastal missile emplacements. Analysts warn 'many months of such strikes would be required to cripple Iran's ability to attack ships' even with sustained air operations. Coalition unity is fracturing: China has unrestricted passage, India negotiated separate Iranian naval escorts, and Japan/South Korea are pursuing bilateral safe-passage deals — undermining unified pressure while partially alleviating supply shortages.