Sanctions — 2026-10-17

Trump Waives Sweeping Russia Sanctions Under New Lindsey Graham Act, Raising Duty by 500 Percent Then Exempting Most Measures

BLUFTrump's sweeping Russia sanctions exist on paper but are very unlikely to take effect on any country by mid-November, serving instead as dormant leverage he controls unilaterally.

President Trump signed an executive order late Friday that set a 500 percent duty on Russian goods and 100 percent tariffs on the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas, then waived most of those measures under the Graham Act 123. CBS News reported the 100 percent tariffs were due to take effect Sunday, and the order says Trump certified to Congress that the waiver serves U.S. national interests 23. Per Newsweek, the waivers last until Trump or the secretary of state determines further action is appropriate, the order does not name affected countries, and sanctions imposed under earlier orders remain in place 3. Representative Don Beyer accused Trump of surrendering to Putin 1, while Newsweek reported the order does not mention the October 9 diesel deal and states no causal link to it 3.

Analysis
The Graham Act waiver is very unlikely to be revoked or allowed to lapse so that the 100 percent tariffs take effect on at least one country by November 17. Confidence is moderate, resting on consistent reporting of the order's terms, though the order text itself is uncited and The Hill's cached copy is truncated. The waiver sets no deadline, leaves the decision to Trump or the secretary of state, and names no target countries, while Senate and Beyer pressure has no binding mechanism. The statute's waiver authority, the main constraint on its impact, was used before any duty took effect. The waiver may instead be a bargaining position tied to the diesel deal, reversible if Moscow fails to deliver or strikes on Ukrainian energy continue. If it holds, China, India and Turkey keep their Russian energy contracts, and Senate sponsors must choose between amending the law and accepting the waiver.

4 sources