Latvia and Lithuania Move Toward Hosting Allied Nuclear Weapons as Russia Escalates Nuclear Threats

Analysis
Lithuania's constitutional change widens Baltic options in a crisis but does not by itself place a single warhead on Baltic soil. Deployment still needs a separate national decision, a willing nuclear power, and purpose-built storage and security, none of which is publicly confirmed. The practical path runs through France's advanced deterrence program, which could give Vilnius and Riga a treaty basis for crisis-time basing without a peacetime presence. Moscow is using the debate to build a pretext, and if the January 12 vote proceeds, Peskov's targeting statement and Medvedev's threat will need further escalation to stay credible. The moves may instead be a bargaining signal meant to draw France, the United Kingdom, and the United States into firmer commitments, with no intent to host warheads. Confidence is high: independent outlets and a primary Carnegie analysis converge, though Meduza partly republishes Carnegie, and allied willingness remains open because no agreements have been announced.