Indo-Pacific — 2026-06-05

Taiwan Plans to More Than Double Anti-Ship Missile Arsenal to Over 1800 by 2029 Amid Rising China Invasion Threat

BLUFTaiwan's missile count will exceed 1,800 on paper by decade's end, but survivability against Chinese pre-targeting hinges on dispersal execution, which remains genuinely uncertain at low confidence.

Reuters, drawing on arms trade data, US export approval documents, and senior Taiwanese officials speaking anonymously, calculated the 1,850-missile figure as 850 Boeing-made Harpoons and approximately 1,000 domestically produced Hsiung Feng II and III cruise missiles 12. The remaining 400 Harpoons begin delivery this year under a $2.4 billion deal approved in late 2020, with completion expected by March 2029; one senior official told Reuters the timetable could slip to 2030 12. Taiwan's opposition-controlled legislature approved an additional $25 billion munitions package on May 8, covering precision weapons with sufficient range to target Chinese forces at embarkation ports 234. A new Littoral Combat Command integrating coastal radars, anti-ship missiles, and drones is to stand up on July 1 12.

Analysis
The July 1 Littoral Combat Command activation locks coordination infrastructure in place before the full Harpoon complement arrives, advancing Taiwan's asymmetric posture independent of procurement timelines. Completion of the remaining 400 Block II missiles by March 2029 is genuinely uncertain. Analytic confidence is low: the sole anonymous official flagging 2030 slippage is unresolved against US government documentation, and competing production demands could widen the gap without observable warning. Fixed and shipborne deployments remain pre-located by Chinese targeting, making dispersal execution the operative survivability variable. Reuters is the sole primary; all other outlets reprinted the wire with no original reporting. Beijing may read the delivery window as a narrowing opportunity, accelerating rather than deterring action. A slip to 2030 would leave Pentagon FMS managers reassessing whether Hsiung Feng production targets or US operational planning for that window require adjustment.
5 sources
  1. Taiwan Beefs up Anti-Ship Missile Arsenal to Counter Threat of Chinese Invasion - gCaptain
  2. Taiwan beefs up anti-ship missile arsenal - Taipei Times
  3. Taiwan plans to more than double anti-ship missiles by 2029 - Prism News
  4. Taiwan to boost anti-ship missile arsenal to over 1,800 by 2029 amid China threat - National Herald India
  5. Taiwan beefs up anti-ship missile arsenal to counter threat of Chinese invasion - Reuters

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