Indo-Pacific — 2026-09-07

Philippines Defense Chief Warns China Could Exploit Cuts in US-South Korean Military Exercises

BLUFManila's diplomatic diversification signals genuine unease over US commitment, but without submarine capability or credible naval deterrence, partner agreements alone will not alter Beijing's calculus in the South China Sea.

Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said on Monday that China "is very quick to exploit gaps" and could see President Trump's decision last month to scale back U.S.-South Korean military exercises as an opening to reassert itself across the Indo-Pacific 12. Speaking to Reuters on the sidelines of the Seoul Defense Dialogue, Teodoro said there has been no reduction in U.S.-Philippine military activity and that Washington has given Manila "definite assurances" that commitments under the Mutual Defense Treaty are unchanged 12. He said the Philippines is also expanding security ties beyond Washington, citing concluded agreements with Canada and New Zealand, a visiting forces pact with France, and ongoing negotiations with Britain 12. Teodoro added that a long-discussed submarine acquisition program remains "still under review" and "a way off," citing unresolved questions on mission requirements and infrastructure 12.

Analysis
Teodoro's warning functions less as a novel threat assessment than as a public hedge against perceived US retrenchment, reassuring allies while Manila accelerates diversification toward Canada, New Zealand, France and Britain. His insistence on "definite assurances" from Washington on the Mutual Defense Treaty suggests private guarantees have not fully quieted doubts inside Manila's defense establishment about the Seoul drawdown's regional signal. The remarks may instead be aimed chiefly at reassuring domestic critics of the Marcos government's US alignment rather than at genuine fear of Chinese exploitation. The stalled submarine program shows diplomatic hedging outpacing material capability, leaving actual deterrent posture largely unchanged even as the partner network widens, a mismatch that gives Beijing room to test resolve in the South China Sea. Reuters is the sole original source; other outlets carrying the remarks are syndicating the same wire dispatch, not independently corroborating it.

5 sources

Philippines Teodoro says China could exploit cuts in US-South Korean exercises - Reuters
Philippines' Teodoro says China could exploit cuts in US-South Korean exercises - Free Malaysia Today (Reuters)
Philippines' Teodoro says China could exploit cuts in US-South Korean exercises - New Straits Times (Reuters)
Philippines' Teodoro says China could exploit cuts in US-South Korean exercises - Internazionale (Reuters)
Philippines' Teodoro says China could exploit cuts in US-South Korean exercises - Reuters