Nuclear Proliferation — 2026-10-15

Iranian Conservatives Push NPT Withdrawal as SNSC Secretary Rezaei Issues Unprecedented Treaty Threat

BLUFIran's parliament is unlikely to hold a floor vote on NPT withdrawal by November 30, 2026, but Rezaei's unprecedented conditional threat and the conservative open letter are steadily narrowing Ghalibaf's room to block debate.

Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei told Al Jazeera on September 19 that Iran's nuclear doctrine is unchanged but that NPT withdrawal depends on US conduct 12. Press TV reported that lawmaker Hossein-Ali Haji Deligani said a triple-urgency withdrawal bill sits with parliament's Presiding Board awaiting Speaker Ghalibaf's approval for floor debate 2. On September 28, 32 prominent conservatives published an open letter urging Pezeshkian, parliament and the SNSC to halt IAEA cooperation and begin withdrawal, per Inkstick 3. Aletho News, republishing The Cradle, reported that Pezeshkian's government defends continued membership, and that Ghalibaf-aligned Khorasan opposes withdrawal now 4. Inkstick reported that the SNSC has not reached consensus 3.

Analysis
Iran's parliament is unlikely to hold a floor vote on an NPT withdrawal bill by November 30, 2026, because Speaker Ghalibaf, who aligns with Pezeshkian and controls the agenda, has left the triple-urgency bill with the Presiding Board for months. Confidence is moderate: outlets consistently report that the Supreme National Security Council lacks consensus, but closed-door deliberations are invisible, and sourcing is thin, with one state-media account anchoring the bill and Rezaei's remarks. The council, not the Majles, would decide any exit, so a vote would mainly signal intent. The 32 conservatives' open letter and Rezaei's conditional threat, the first by a council secretary, add pressure on Ghalibaf, and any change in how he handles the bill would be the clearest indicator. The threats may instead be bargaining leverage aimed at Washington, Moscow and Beijing. A vote would push Washington and Europe toward Security Council consultations and IAEA monitoring-loss contingency planning.

4 sources

Mohsen Rezaei Says Iran's NPT Withdrawal Depends on Washington's Behavior: 16 outlets compared - Newscord
Iranian lawmakers push for NPT withdrawal, submit bill to Parliament's Presiding Board - Press TV
Will Iran Ditch the Non-Proliferation Treaty? - Inkstick Media
Iran's NPT debate moves beyond parliament - Aletho News