Stimson Center: Saudi Nuclear Path Independent of Iran War Outcome, Driven by Eroding US Security Guarantees

Stimson Center analyst Kaitlyn Hashem argues Saudi Arabia's nuclear trajectory reflects eroding confidence in U.S. security guarantees rather than reactive calculations to Iran's nuclear program. The analysis contends Riyadh may pursue autonomous nuclear capabilities regardless of diplomatic outcomes in the current Iran conflict, requiring IC analysts to decouple Saudi proliferation assessments from the Iran file. This distinction has operational significance: if Saudi nuclear ambitions are structurally independent of Tehran's posture, current U.S. strategy to limit proliferation through Iran regime change or nuclear deal frameworks would be insufficient to prevent a second regional nuclear power.