Energy & Commodities — 2026-10-29

OPEC+ Meets November 1 With Saudi Quota at 10.5 Million Barrels Per Day and Hormuz Closed

BLUFOPEC+ will likely keep existing production targets unchanged on November 1, but the decision is operationally moot while Hormuz remains closed and actual output sits far below quotas.

Three people familiar with the discussions told Reuters on October 27 that seven core OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq, are unlikely to change existing targets when they meet Sunday, November 1, though no final decision has been reached 12. House of Saud reported that Saudi Arabia's quota stands at 10.478 million barrels per day, while tanker-tracking data cited by BusinessToday put its crude loadings near 2.1 million in early September 3. The same outlet, citing Seatrade Maritime, said Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared Hormuz closed on October 26 after striking two tankers, and cited Oilprice.com saying the Houthis claimed drone attacks that day on East-West pipeline pumping stations, which Saudi Arabia has not confirmed 3. Reuters' sources said conflict-related disruptions have left actual output well below quotas, and the group's 2027 baseline capacity review is delayed 12.

Analysis
OPEC+ core members will likely announce on November 1 that they are keeping existing production targets unchanged. Confidence is low because the account rests on a single reporting stream: three anonymous sources relayed through Reuters, with no final decision or official statement and no primary reporting. The decision matters less than the gap behind it, since Saudi loadings near 2.1 million barrels per day sit far below the 10.478 million quota and no target can restore barrels that lack a route to port. The delayed 2027 capacity review is the more consequential open item, because new baselines cannot be set while Hormuz is contested and East-West pumping stations remain exposed to Houthi attack. Core members could instead signal a symbolic quota adjustment to show cohesion after the UAE exit, since unenforceable quotas cost little. If the hold is announced, refiners and traders can keep pricing off physical Gulf disruption rather than quota policy. Communique language on the UAE and the baseline timetable is the signal to watch.

4 sources

OPEC+ expected to hold December oil targets steady as supply disruptions persist - Oil & Gas 360 (Reuters)
OPEC+ May Retain December Oil Targets As Supply Disruptions Continue - Leadership (Nigeria)
OPEC Meets November 1 With Saudi Quota at 10.5 mb/d and Hormuz Closed - House of Saud
OPEC+ oil producers set to keep output targets steady at Sunday meeting, sources say - Reuters