Fifth Circuit denies ACLU appeal on Venezuelan deportations; Supreme Court emergency application filed same day

Analysis
The emergency application returns AEA removals to the SCOTUS shadow docket, the same vehicle the Court used in 2025 to pause comparable deportations, testing whether the current majority holds that course after administration compliance questions complicated the prior round. Per converging primary court filings, there is a roughly even chance within 14 days the Court issues an administrative stay pending briefing, grounded in that prior pattern but complicated by Hendrix's factual finding that imminent removal was not shown. If the Court declines, removal operations proceed on a shorter-than-one-week clock. The deeper question is whether the administration treats AEA designation as jurisdictional foundation or merely procedural preference, a distinction that determines how much any stay actually constrains future operations. The application may instead be aimed primarily at preserving the issue for class certification rather than blocking individual removals, in which case the likely output is a narrower procedural order, and individual removals proceed largely unimpeded regardless of how the Court rules.