CCP Fifth Plenum Opens With Focus on Corruption Crackdown and Military Purges

Analysis
Moderate confidence rests on consistent reporting of eight vacant seats and 15 members under investigation, but no outlet has seen the closed-door proceedings, and the figures trace to one Asia Society Policy Institute dataset relayed through AFP and AP. Xi appears to be using the session to refill ranks with loyalists and set tougher compliance standards before the 2027 congress. The plenum's communique, published by Xinhua by November 5, 2026, will likely announce the removal or expulsion of at least one Central Committee member. Turnout below 80 percent, which would be the lowest since 1976, would show the purges have hollowed out the body Xi needs to ratify succession-year personnel choices. The session may instead center on policy language and discipline rules, with the communique confirming earlier expulsions and Central Military Commission appointments, now short five of seven members, deferred to the congress. If removals are announced, analysts and governments should plan for continued purges and command uncertainty through the transition. If none are, they can read the session as consolidation and expect personnel moves to wait.