Adversary Intelligence — 2026-05-23

US Intelligence Warns Russia and China Nearly Tripled Espionage Personnel in Cuba With Facilities Monitoring US Military

BLUFDespite Ratcliffe's Havana warning, Cuba remains very unlikely to take any verifiable step to curb Russian or Chinese collection within 12 months, given durable material dependence on both sponsors.

The Wall Street Journal reported on May 22, citing officials familiar with classified US intelligence assessments, that Russia and China have nearly tripled intelligence personnel in Cuba since 2023 and invested in electronic eavesdropping facilities about 100 miles from the US coast to monitor two Florida military headquarters overseeing Middle East and Latin American operations 12. Both countries have added more modern equipment to intercept military communications, maritime traffic, and intelligence signals from the southeastern United States 12. On May 14, CIA Director Ratcliffe traveled to Havana and warned Cuban officials the "window of opportunity" would not remain open indefinitely 2. China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian called the allegations fabricated and described Beijing's Cuba cooperation as "legitimate, transparent, and in accordance with international law" 2.

Analysis
Ratcliffe's Havana visit has not altered the structural incentives making Cuba's accommodation durable. Havana has denied the cooperation's full scope at every diplomatic juncture, derives material support from both sponsors, and faces no coercive lever sufficient to absorb the political and economic costs of reducing adversary collection access. Any verifiable reduction in Russian or Chinese SIGINT infrastructure within 12 months is very unlikely. The classified assessments may instead reflect a coordinated US disclosure designed to pressure Havana before a harder ultimatum, with the intelligence framing serving diplomatic ends. Low confidence attaches to this assessment: sourcing runs through a single outlet citing anonymous officials, with no publicly corroborated imagery or signals reporting to validate the claimed scale. Whether Havana moves determines whether the administration pursues a diplomatic settlement or pivots to sanctions escalation ahead of the Pentagon's June 2026 Cuba intelligence report to Congress.

5 sources

U.S. Warns of Growing Russian and Chinese Spying in Cuba - Wall Street Journal
United States warns: Russian and Chinese espionage in Cuba is increasing - CiberCuba
U.S. Warns of Russian and Chinese Spying in Cuba - Political Wire
WSJ: Russia and China Expand Intelligence Operations in Cuba - Pravda USA
Russia and China Have Expanded Their Intelligence Operations in Cuba, Tripling Personnel Since 2023 - Pravda USA