SIPRI Analysis Shows Russia Draft Budget Projects Military Spending Above 2026 Levels Through 2029

Analysis
The State Duma will very likely pass the 2027-29 budget in first reading by October 31 with 2027 defense spending at or above 17 trillion roubles. Confidence is high because the published draft and explanatory note already fix the 17.147 trillion figure, and SIPRI, TASS and Reuters each report it from the budget documents. The first reading sets total parameters that the second cannot alter, so defense funding is locked unless the Finance Ministry redrafts. Civilian lines absorb the cost through 5.4% to 6% cuts, and tax increases add about 1.5 trillion roubles. Much of the apparent rise may be accounting, since 2026 spending may already approach 17 trillion and reclassifying war-injury compensation inflates the nominal increase. The 2028-29 decline is projection only. Sanctions and force-posture planners should treat 2027 as a fixed high baseline and focus on revenue strain, but should reassess Moscow's fiscal capacity if the vote fails or the figure falls.