Russias Perm Oil Refinery Remains Offline After Ukrainian Drone Strike

Analysis
Three strikes against the same complex in under two weeks, the latest on May 7 per Reuters alone and uncorroborated from inside Russia, point to a deliberate deep-rear infrastructure campaign. Full shutdown of all crude distillation units removes roughly 12.6 million tonnes of annual throughput, including 5.3 million tonnes of diesel, from Russia's export balance. Whether partial operations resume within 90 days is uncertain: simultaneous CDU damage compounded by CDU-4's prior outage suggests repair complexity beyond routine, though Russia has adapted at previously struck facilities. Moscow may have inflated the damage to justify export restrictions or deter further strikes, a reading that would blunt the supply impact. European diesel traders should hold forecast revisions until the 90-day window resolves.