Africa — 2026-08-23
Over 200,000 Newly Displaced in Sudan Kordofan as RSF Encircles El Obeid and Drone Strikes Destroy Critical Infrastructure
BLUFRSF encirclement of El Obeid is unlikely to yield capture of the city center before December 1, but infrastructure attrition and route interdiction will accelerate displacement well beyond 200,000.
More than 200,000 people have been newly displaced across Sudan's Kordofan region since late 2025, IOM Director General Amy Pope said, with displacement in Sheikan locality, which includes El Obeid, up 25 percent over the past eight months 12. Drone strikes and intensified fighting hit El Obeid's main electrical transformer, causing prolonged power outages that disrupted water pumping, hospitals and telecommunications 13. IOM's Displacement Tracking Matrix recorded roughly 11,000 people fleeing Um Samima and Abu Haraz villages in Sheikan locality between August 16 and 18, while Blue Nile state saw 7,800 to 78,000 displaced from clashes near Geissan, with figures varying by source, and West Darfur registered nearly 18,000 displaced in the first half of August 234. Al Jazeera reported RSF forces maintaining positions south and west of El Obeid and continuing drone attacks on army vehicles, oil tankers and cargo trucks along the city's main access road 3. IOM said it delivered 1,750 metric tons of humanitarian supplies over 72 hours, reaching 110,750 people so far 12. IOM also said Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz shipping closures are delaying aid deliveries as the response is set to expand from 110,750 people reached to more than 400,000 in the coming days, while separate flooding in North Darfur's Tawila, Kabkabiya and Shangil Tobaya areas destroyed nearly 1,350 homes and displaced more than 1,000 families 12.
AnalysisRSF's siege of El Obeid is degrading infrastructure and displacing civilians faster than it is closing the city off, and the group is
unlikely to capture and hold the center before December 1: drone strikes on the main transformer point to an attrition strategy against utilities and supply routes rather than an imminent assault on SAF positions south and west of the city. RSF may instead be seeking to force capitulation without a costly urban fight. SAF still holds the center, having denied RSF the full encirclement expected by mid-August, even as displacement in Sheikan locality has risen 25 percent over eight months. This judgment carries low confidence, reflecting reliance on a single primary source (IOM) recycled across secondary outlets without independent corroboration. Continued interdiction of the access road determines whether overland aid convoys remain viable or responders must shift to air-delivered relief for the 3.4 million residents packed into a city built for 750,000.
5 sources
- Sudan: 200,000 Newly Displaced as Fighting and Floods Intensify, Closure of Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz Threatens Critical Aid - International Organization for Migration (IOM)
- Sudan war: 200,000 newly displaced as fighting and floods intensify - UN News
- Over 200,000 people newly displaced in Sudans Kordofan as fighting rages - Al Jazeera
- Nearly 200,000 Displaced in Sudan Amid Fighting and Floods - Darfur24
- IOM: 200k+ displaced across Kordofan as fighting intensifies - Dabanga Radio TV Online
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