Global Economy — 2026-04-30

Brent Crude Surges to Wartime High of $126 Amid CENTCOM Briefing Reports

Brent crude hit $126 per barrel, its highest since the Iran war began on February 28, following Axios reporting on CENTCOM plans for further military action and continued near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs estimates Hormuz exports have fallen to 4 percent of normal levels and warns prices could reach $140-150 if disruptions persist. Oil is up approximately 60 percent since the war started.

Analysis
The Hormuz closure has reduced flows to a scale and duration with no modern precedent. CENTCOM escalation reporting, sourced to a single Axios report and unverified, narrows the window for near-term diplomatic restoration. Brent is likely to hold above $110 over the next 30 days while the naval blockade holds, though SPR releases or de-escalation signals can puncture that level without resolving the blockade. Iran retains incentive to restore partial access before domestic revenue losses force political concessions, and the CENTCOM reporting may reflect contingency planning rather than imminent operational orders, a distinction markets have not priced.
4 sources
  1. Brent oil pulls back after climbing to $126 per barrel on U.S.-Iran escalation fears - CNBC
  2. Oil briefly touches $126, its highest price in four years - CNN Business
  3. Brent crude surges over $120 a barrel on Iran war worries, while world stocks are mixed - The Washington Post
  4. Oil prices soar on fears of long supply disruption, US siege of Iran ports - Al Jazeera

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