Indo-Pacific — 2026-07-24

Chinese Coast Guard Fires Water Cannons at Philippine Vessels Near Scarborough Shoal in Third Confrontation This Week

BLUFBeijing's near-daily escalation pattern and AIS concealment make further water-cannon or blocking actions against Philippine vessels likely within the next two weeks, testing Manila's tolerance short of kinetic force.

China Coast Guard vessels fired water cannon at Philippine Coast Guard and Bureau of Fisheries vessels near Scarborough Shoal on Friday for a second consecutive day, the PCG said, with a Chinese ship closing to about seven meters of the BRP Datu Paduhinog and briefly knocking out its satellite connectivity 12. The PCG said 12 China Coast Guard vessels and three Chinese maritime militia ships took part, and that CCG vessel 21581 switched off its AIS before the encounter 1. CNN, whose crew was aboard one of the targeted BFAR vessels, put the Chinese total at 15 ships against 10 Philippine vessels and reported the mission was called off after the crew cited an approaching typhoon 3. China's coast guard said it took lawful "control measures" against Philippine vessels operating illegally near what it calls Huangyan Island, and foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian called the actions "professional, standard, and beyond reproach" 23. The incident followed a Monday clash at Second Thomas Shoal in which the Philippine military said two service members were injured, marking the third confrontation between the two sides in five days 34.

Analysis
China Coast Guard water-cannon and blocking actions against Philippine vessels near Scarborough or Second Thomas Shoal are likely to recur within the next two weeks, given a near-daily deployment pattern this week paired with AIS concealment and militia support, and concurrent Chinese military drills elsewhere in the waterway through July suggest Beijing intends to raise the cost of Philippine resupply missions rather than pause. Confidence is moderate: three consecutive incidents in five days show consistent behavioral indicators, corroborated by CNN's embedded crew and Manila Times' vessel-by-vessel tracking rather than single-statement relay, but whether the approaching typhoon suppresses patrol tempo independent of political intent remains unclear. Beijing's actions may instead reflect defensive signaling timed to the ASEAN foreign ministers' meetings in Manila and Rubio's presence there. A durable escalation would press Washington toward treaty-relevant responses, such as escorting Philippine resupply missions, rather than allowing this week's clashes to be read as a contained spike.
5 sources
  1. Chinese ships water cannon PH vessels in territorial waters, again, PCG stands pat - Manila Times
  2. Philippines accuses China of using water cannon on vessels for second day - Al Jazeera
  3. Chinese ship shoots water cannon at Philippine vessel with CNN crew on board near flashpoint shoal
  4. South China Sea: Beijing and Manila trade blame on second day of Scarborough Shoal clashes - South China Morning Post
  5. China coast guard uses water cannons on 2 Philippine vessels as top diplomats meet in Manila - Washington Post

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