Explosion at Bulgarian EMCO Ammunition Depot Supplying Ukraine Sparks Sabotage Probe Linked to GRU Unit 29155

Analysis
Bulgarian authorities are unlikely to publicly attribute the blast to external sabotage within 60 days, consistent with a decade-long pattern of inconclusive probes into more than ten similar defense-sector incidents since 2011. Demerdzhiev's framing of the explosion as a storage-and-security failure rather than confirmed sabotage signals Sofia is positioning it as domestic negligence, not an act it is ready to pin on a foreign actor, and neglected storage conditions cited on the record remain the more mundane explanation. Moderate confidence rests on the unresolved 2011 Lovnidol precedent and the absence of forensic evidence officials have cited so far; formal attribution would require investigators to recover physical evidence of an explosive device, as occurred in 2011 before that probe stalled. Three outlets report independently rather than off one wire feed, giving broad but moderate-reliability corroboration on facts while diverging on attribution language. A confirmed sabotage finding would trigger NATO-level scrutiny of Bulgaria's defense-industrial security and possible rerouting of ammunition transshipment to Ukraine; an inconclusive result leaves current practices and their exposure unchanged.