Europe — 2026-10-23

Vucic Rejects Russia Sanctions and Blames Foreign Powers for Serbian Student Protest Movement

BLUFBelgrade is very unlikely to impose sanctions on Russia in the next 90 days, as both Vučić and the student-led opposition have publicly ruled them out ahead of the October 25 vote.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said on Tuesday that Serbia will keep resisting pressure to sanction Russia, in an interview published by Ksenia Sobchak, and claimed the opposition would impose sanctions within 10 days of taking power 12. He also accused foreign powers of funneling hundreds of millions or even billions of euros into NGOs and media to overthrow his government, and presented no evidence, OCCRP reported 1. Reuters reported that the student movement, which began after the November 2024 Novi Sad canopy collapse killed 16 people, is fielding a 250-candidate "Students Win" list in the October 25 election 3. The only October poll, published by NSPM on October 20, put the list at 44.5% against 42.7% for Vučić's Serbian Progressive Party, though betting odds favor Vučić 3. Reuters said the students deny being organized from abroad and that critics fault them for saying they would not sanction Russia 3.

Analysis
Moderate confidence rests on Vučić's public rejection of sanctions and the students' stated refusal to impose them, offset by a single October poll and no observed post-election policy signals. Both main contenders for the October 25 vote have ruled out sanctions, so the outcome alone will not change Belgrade's Russia policy. Serbia is very unlikely to impose sanctions on Russia, or formally adopt the EU's Russia sanctions regime, between October 23 and January 23. Sourcing is thin: one primary Reuters report, with OCCRP and a News.az rewrite drawing on a single stream. Vučić's claim that the opposition would sanction Russia within 10 days contradicts the students' position and casts rivals as Western instruments. A student-led government facing EU accession pressure and bureaucratic resistance could still reverse course, and a Vučić loss might open space for alignment with EU sanctions within months. If Serbia stays outside the regime, Brussels and Washington keep tying accession and energy exemptions to other levers. Alignment would let EU officials close a major gap and ease enforcement-risk planning for firms using Serbian transit and trade.

3 sources

Vucic Rejects Russia Sanctions, Blames Foreign Powers for Protests - OCCRP
Serbia's Vučić opposes Russia sanctions, accuses foreign powers over protests - News.az
As Serbia votes, students emerge as greatest threat to Vucic's long rule - Reuters (via Internazionale)