Spanish Intelligence Provided Advance Warning of Ceuta Migrant Surge Days Before Crisis

Analysis
The dispute over advance warning turns Ceuta into an accountability question, testing whether Grande-Marlaska's denial survives corroborated CNI reporting once Defence's classification wall comes under political pressure. Confidence is low, resting on unnamed military and CNI sources within a single primary outlet, with other coverage amplifying rather than independently corroborating and Defence neither confirming nor denying the claimed alerts. Feijóo's public challenge and Robles's call for an inquiry into Morocco's role signal Madrid cannot contain the story within Interior alone, pulling Defence and parliament into a fight over who saw the intelligence and when. Interior's account may instead reflect only aggregate entry statistics rather than a specific warning of an imminent mass crossing, meaning both sides could be describing the same product through different thresholds of what counts as a warning. If genuine, unheeded red alerts predating the Supreme Court ruling's effect would reframe the 72 deaths as a preventable failure of border resource allocation.