Global Economy — 2026-07-14

Oil Prices Surge Above $85 as Trump Reinstates Naval Blockade in Strait of Hormuz

BLUFCompounding US strikes, Iranian tanker attacks, and a halving of strait transits make Brent crude likely to breach $100 a barrel within 30 days, pressuring depleted strategic reserves.

Brent crude climbed to $85.92 a barrel Tuesday, up 3.8 percent on the day and extending a 9.6 percent Monday gain to the highest level in a month, according to Al Jazeera Strait of Hormuz outlook" data-source="Al Jazeera" data-url="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/14/oil-hits-1-month-high-as-us-iran-fighting-clouds-strait-of-hormuz-outlook" data-mbfc="mixed" data-otype="broadcaster">1. President Trump said on Truth Social the US was reinstating the "Iranian Blockade" targeting only Iranian vessels and customers, while seeking reimbursement at 20 percent on all cargo shipped for providing security, with the measure set to take effect at 4pm ET per US Central Command, Fortune and Axios reported 23. Central Command said US forces struck Iran for a third consecutive day, targeting Tehran's ability to attack shipping in the strait, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it hit two oil tankers and launched missile and drone strikes on US assets in Kuwait and Bahrain 1. Ship-tracker MarineTraffic recorded 57 strait transits from Friday through Sunday, over 50 percent below the prior week's pace and well under the roughly 130 daily transits seen before February's war, even as the US Department of Energy said 8.5 million barrels moved through the strait Sunday with military escort 1.

Analysis
Brent crude is likely to close above $100 a barrel within the next 30 days, as compounding US strikes, Iranian tanker attacks, and a more than 50 percent drop in strait transits collide with a strategic reserve cushion analysts describe as largely depleted. A breach of that threshold would accelerate pass-through into refined fuel prices and force Washington to draw further on emergency stocks or expand the naval escort mission to hold throughput near current levels. Moderate confidence reflects consistent price signals across independent market analysts but incomplete visibility into whether Iran can sustain tanker strikes or Gulf pipeline workarounds blunt the shock inside the window.

4 sources