Allied Intelligence — 2026-10-01

Shin Bet Chief Warned Months Ago of Security Gaps on UAE Flights Before FlyDubai Hijack Attempt

BLUFDespite the hijack attempt validating Shin Bet warnings, a formal Israeli suspension of flydubai flights by end of October is unlikely, as both sides appear headed toward a negotiated security fix instead.

According to Amit Segal's Channel 12 report, relayed by JFeed and Matzav, Shin Bet Director David Zini had warned that security arrangements for UAE flights were inadequate and had pressed for a ban on Israeli carriers flying there, which caused a dispute with the airlines 12. On Wednesday a flydubai co-pilot, an Omani national, stabbed the captain on Flight FZ1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv and tried to crash the aircraft, which plunged about 4,000 meters before passengers subdued him and the plane landed at Tabuk, Saudi Arabia, according to the Jerusalem Post 3. Israel is investigating whether the co-pilot waited until the aircraft neared Jordan in order to crash it inside Israel, which officials describe as a line of inquiry and not a conclusion 12. Jerusalem Post sources say Israeli agencies assess he acted alone, and Saudi Arabia is leading his interrogation 3. Calcalist reported that Transportation Minister Miri Regev directed her ministry to examine halting flydubai flights to Israel, and that UAE officials signaled flexibility on Shin Bet requirements 4.

Analysis
Israel is unlikely to formally suspend or ban flydubai flights by October 31. Regev's ministry review is not a decision, the UAE is signaling flexibility on Shin Bet requirements, and a suspension would close the route while Israeli carriers remain barred. A negotiated aviation-security arrangement letting El Al, Arkia and Israir resume Dubai service is the more probable outcome, with El Al targeting November. Confidence is moderate: the sourcing rests on one Jerusalem Post account with consistent secondary pickup and no ministry decision on record. The Shin Bet warnings may instead have been leaked to shift blame onto the airlines and ministry, which would make a ban likelier if a second vetting lapse emerges. The outcome sets whether travelers reroute or El Al proceeds with its November planning.

4 sources