Sanctions — 2026-10-19

Sen. Graham Breaks With Trump on Graham Act Sanctions Waiver as Rubio Triggers 60-Day Congressional Review

BLUFCongress is unlikely to block or overturn the Graham Act waiver by December 19, leaving the administration free to reshape Russia sanctions unilaterally through executive action.

President Trump signed an executive order on Friday waiving every operative Russia section of the Graham Act, including tariffs of up to 500% and bank sanctions, two days before they were due to take effect, ABC News reported 1. The order leaves earlier executive-order sanctions in place but waives the statutory provision requiring them to stay in force 1. Secretary of State Rubio said the waiver is a 60-day pause to study sanctions' effects on the US and global economies, citing India's reliance on Russian oil, according to the Kyiv Post 2 and U.S. News & World Report 3. Tillis, Cornyn and Schumer criticized the move, as did Zelenskyy, while Rep. Massie welcomed it 1; The Hill reports Sen. Graham broke with Trump over the waiver 4.

Analysis
Trump's waiver sets aside every operative Russia section before any tariff or sanction took effect, using authority the September signing left open. It also removes the statutory bar on unilateral changes to earlier executive-order sanctions, so Washington can ease them without a congressional vote. Congress is unlikely to pass a bill or resolution in either chamber by December 19, 2026 that blocks or overturns Trump's Graham Act waiver. Criticism from Tillis, Cornyn, Schumer and Graham's own allies is loud, but the waiver authority sits with the president and a binding rebuke would need veto-proof majorities. The fight shifts to Treasury licensing and the diesel deal, where the administration acts alone. Confidence is high, based on a documented executive order, consistent reporting across four outlets with ABC News as the primary account, and no scheduled floor action. The 60-day pause may instead be a genuine economic review tied to oil supply and India's dependence on Russian crude, so sanctions could return once diesel prices ease. Compliance officers and allied capitals should treat the Russia provisions as dormant and expect enforcement to follow presidential discretion, unless Congress moves to block the waiver.
4 sources
  1. Trump signs order waiving Graham Act sanctions on Russia, drawing backlash from some lawmakers and Zelenskyy - ABC News
  2. Trump Using 60-Day Pause to Review Russia Sanctions, Rubio Says - Kyiv Post
  3. Rubio Says Trump to Take up to 60 Days to Weigh Russia Sanctions - U.S. News & World Report
  4. Graham breaks with Trump on sanctions waiver for Russia - The Hill

View in full brief →

UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE