Energy & Commodities — 2026-07-22

European Gas Reaches 60 Euros Per MWh as Gulf Disruption Exposes Winter Storage Gap Below Seasonal Average

BLUFNorthwest European gas storage will likely remain below 67 percent by November 1, leaving the continent entering winter with its thinnest supply cushion in four years.

Dutch TTF gas futures rose above €60 per megawatt hour on Monday, their highest in four months, as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed to shipping amid continued US-Iran hostilities 1. Goldman Sachs analyst Samantha Dart pushed back her forecast for Persian Gulf LNG export normalization from July to October and raised TTF price forecasts to 60 euros for the balance of the third quarter and 53 euros for the fourth quarter, citing an estimated 16 million tonne, or 4 percent, reduction in balance-of-summer global LNG supply 2. Goldman now projects Northwest European storage at 67 percent full by the end of October, down from a prior 74 percent estimate 2. EU regulator ACER separately reported storage at roughly 49 percent capacity, below both the 10-year seasonal average and last year's pace, after starting the injection season at 28 percent, its lowest level in four years 3.

Analysis
Northwest European storage likely will remain below Goldman's revised 67 percent end-of-October benchmark by November 1, given the reduced Gulf LNG flows already embedded in the forecast. Moderate confidence reflects convergent commercial and regulatory data on the storage shortfall, though the trajectory still depends on Hormuz shipping conditions and Asian LNG demand over the coming months. Continued price pressure above 60 euros will keep incentives to inject storage weak through the third quarter, compounding the gap ACER has already documented. A faster-than-anticipated Gulf resolution remains the primary variable that could narrow the shortfall before winter.

4 sources

Gas Hits €60/MWh Amid US-Iran Tensions - Athens Times
Goldman Sachs hikes European gas price forecast on Hormuz disruption - Investing.com
EU faces tougher gas storage refill task as winter looms and high prices bite - Euronews
European Gas Reaches 60 as Gulf Disruption Exposes Winter Storage Gap - EU Today