Brent Crude Surges to $110 as Hormuz Disruption Threatens Prolonged Supply Loss

Analysis
The failed exchange over Tehran's counteroffer removes the most plausible near-term de-escalation path and leaves the physical supply disruption without a release valve. Iranian export flows have halted for the longest continuous stretch since late February, tightening the physical market at precisely the moment emergency reserve releases are being drawn down at record pace. We assess that Brent crude is likely to remain above $105 a barrel through the end of May. Analytical confidence is high, grounded in consistent primary-source reporting on the physical export halt, the Saudi Aramco CEO's explicit mid-June deadline warning, and the absence of any active diplomatic channel capable of producing a settlement within the forecast window. The weakening prompt spread signals refiners are moderating near-term buying: backwardation has contracted from nearly $10 a barrel in early April to roughly $4, a downward force that does not erase the structural supply gap.