Adversary Intelligence — 2026-07-04

IISS Report Assesses Russian Shadow Fleet Launched GRU Drone Surveillance Missions Over US and NATO Bases Across Europe

BLUFDeliberate non-attribution by NATO governments preserves the low-altitude sensor gap exposed across 13 countries, granting any future drone campaign a proven operational template at minimal escalation risk.

A report published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) assesses it is "highly likely" that a coordinated Kremlin UAV campaign flew over Europe between August 2024 and February 2026, documenting 144 drone incidents across 13 countries including NATO member states and Ireland, with roughly 48 percent of sightings over military bases (including nuclear-weapons sites at RAF Lakenheath, Germany's Ramstein Air Base, the Netherlands' Volkel Air Base, Belgium's Kleine-Brogel Air Base, and France's Île Longue submarine base), 18 percent at civilian airports (including a September 2025 closure of Copenhagen Airport), and 26 percent at ports and energy infrastructure 123. The report assesses it is likely that Russian-linked commercial vessels, including sanctioned tankers operating with disabled transponders, served as launch and recovery platforms, and names the cargo ship Hav Dolphin, which was docked in Hull during November 2024 incursions over RAF Lakenheath, RAF Mildenhall, RAF Feltwell and RAF Fairford, and the tanker Seasons 1, tracked off the English coast during the same period 124. IISS attributes the operation to the GRU and identifies the Orlan-10 as one possible drone platform based on its range, endurance and engine signature; no drone was intercepted or recovered, and no government has publicly named Russia or a specific vessel 234. The UK Ministry of Defence and U.S. Air Forces in Europe confirmed the drone activity occurred but declined to address attribution, citing operational security, and Dronewatch Europe publicly disputed the report's conclusions, stating no physical evidence links any drone to any vessel 14.

Analysis
UK and US officials confirm the drone activity but withhold attribution, and IISS itself stops short of naming Russia absent forensic evidence, leaving the attribution gap as the campaign's chief operational advantage. Moderate confidence rests on open-source correlation of vessel tracks and incident timing against a single unrecovered airframe and no intercepted command link, with reporting tracing to one IISS publication that Defense News, TWZ, LBC and The Aviationist have all repackaged. The report's naming of Hav Dolphin and Seasons 1 as suspected launch platforms and the Orlan-10 as a candidate drone marks a shift from prior reporting, which documented incursions without a proposed mechanism, though Dronewatch Europe's disputed methodology suggests a high false-positive detection environment could account for the pattern instead of coordination. NATO's failure to detect or down any of 144 incursions across 13 countries exposes a low-altitude sensor gap that persists regardless of how attribution resolves.

5 sources

IISS Report Says Russian Shadow Fleet Likely Launched Drone Surveillance Missions Over U.S. Bases in England - The Defense News
Russia "Highly Likely" Behind Drone Incursions Over U.S. Bases In England Report Concludes - The War Zone (TWZ)
Putin's shadow fleet used to launch drones to spy on British nuclear and military sites - LBC
New Report Blames Russia's Shadow Fleet for Europe Drone Incursions - The Aviationist
Russia's UAV Campaign Over Europe - IISS (International Institute for Strategic Studies)