Japanese Shipping CEO Warns Hormuz Mines Will Restrict Strait Traffic to Half Prewar Levels for Months

Analysis
The 80-mine estimate in Hormuz's active channel sets a physical ceiling that rules out any 30-day normalization. Transit volume very likely remains below 60 percent of prewar baseline through July 28. High confidence rests on maritime safety, commercial trade analytics, and shipping industry assessments that converge without contradiction on both hazard scope and throughput. The roughly 600 vessels still trapped in the Gulf will flush before new sustained tanker inflows arrive, meaning any initial traffic uptick overstates actual recovery. The normalization horizon has extended to well into 2027, past the 2-month estimate from April. Accelerated US-Iran mine-clearance cooperation could push transits above the 60-percent threshold if the IMO survey overstates the active hazard. Shippers and energy buyers outside the Gulf face a late-July decision on extending alternative routing and insurance hedges; faster clearing renders those positions expensive dead weight.