Middle East — 2026-06-17

Ships Begin Moving Through Strait of Hormuz After US-Iran Truce But Mine Clearing Could Take Weeks

BLUFRestoring Hormuz transit volumes to 80 percent of prewar levels by September 1 is unlikely, with mine clearance timelines and unresolved sanctions exposure compounding to keep Gulf energy exports constrained well into autumn.

Ships have been moving through the Strait of Hormuz at 12 to 15 per day since the US-Iran preliminary agreement, verified shipping data show, against the pre-war average of 120 to 140 daily crossings 12. Five Western maritime security sources told Reuters that conventional minesweeping and drone operations could take 40 to 50 days before shipping and insurance companies would commit to passage, with BIMCO's chief safety officer calling transits "very risky" at this point 12. Secretary Rubio told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on June 2 that Iran had "mined large segments of Hormuz"; Germany's navy cited US and British navies on June 11 placing mines at four strait locations, though Germany stated those positions were not independently verified 12. Britain, France, and Germany have deployed warships and minesweepers to the region; Macron said Monday a European-led mission could be operational within two to three days 1, while Kpler reported roughly 500 commercial vessels remain trapped in the Persian Gulf 3.

Analysis
Restoring Hormuz throughput to near-prewar levels by September 1 is unlikely. A 40-to-50-day clearance operation, now multilateral after France, Britain, and Germany deployed minesweepers where the US had operated alone, runs to mid-August at the far end, and insurer corridor certification trails the physical sweep, leaving roughly 500 trapped Gulf vessels and shut-in fields without a credible recovery window. Moderate confidence rests on consistent estimates from five Western maritime security sources; the total mine inventory remains unverified, leaving worst-case duration open-ended. If Iran's deployment was confined to the four corridor locations cited by Germany's navy, certified lanes could open before mid-August, but the unresolved tolls dispute exposes shippers and banks to US Treasury sanctions independently of clearance progress. Gulf producers weighing field restart decisions will hedge toward delay, extending the supply deficit into Q4.
5 sources
  1. Scouring Strait of Hormuz for mines could take weeks, delaying return to normal shipping - The Jerusalem Post
  2. Clearing mines from Strait of Hormuz could take weeks, sources say - The Globe and Mail
  3. Even with a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, it could take weeks or months for oil to fully flow - PBS NewsHour
  4. Scouring the Strait of Hormuz for Mines Could Take Weeks - Today in Oil and Gas
  5. Scouring the Strait of Hormuz for mines could take weeks - Reuters

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