Iran partially reopens eastern airspace in phased restoration; global airlines still routing around

Analysis
The eastern-to-western reopening sequence, corroborated on the 0330 GMT timestamp across three outlets but with the four-phase framing unverified beyond Iranian state-aligned media, signals Tehran judges aerial threat degraded but not eliminated, placing further Israeli or US strikes against western Iran as very likely within the next four to six weeks. The first procedural concession since February's closure arrives as the Hormuz track hardens, and carrier avoidance persisting through June locks in the 90-120-minute detour penalty on Europe-East Asia routing that sustains the insurance-premium spike and keeps pressure on Q2 airline margins regardless of whether the military exchange pauses. The move also functions as a quiet confidence signal to Moscow and Beijing that Iranian airspace remains viable for the Moscow-Beijing military supply corridor contested since February.