Energy — 2026-06-27

Russia Imports Jet Fuel From Belarus at Four Times Prior Rate After Ukrainian Drone Strikes Cripple Moscow Refinery

BLUFKapotnya's aviation fuel loss very likely persists through year-end, forcing Moscow into demand suppression across 55 federal entities that will strain domestic tolerance for wartime austerity.

Ukrainian drones struck the Kapotnya refinery in Moscow twice in June 123. Unnamed Russian officials told Reuters the plant will remain offline through end of 2026, removing a facility responsible for 1.4 million tons of annual aviation fuel production 1. Russia imported 5,170 metric tons of jet fuel from Belarus in May, nearly four times the May 2025 rate, and took in 2,600 more tons in the first ten days of June, Meduza reported citing Price Index Center data and The Bell 1. Moscow imposed a temporary jet fuel export ban on June 1, later extended through November 30 14. As of June 24, RFE/RL tallied at least 55 of Russia's 83 federal entities reporting mandatory or company-imposed fuel restrictions, with the IEA describing the level of disruption as unprecedented in the conflict 3.

Analysis
Kapotnya very likely remains below half its pre-strike aviation fuel output through December 31, 2026. Belarus imports cover roughly 4 percent of the lost annual tonnage, making demand suppression rather than supply recovery the operative instrument, confirmed by the November 30 export ban extension. Restrictions now span 55 of Russia's 83 federal entities, accumulating domestic political cost the Kremlin cannot bridge before year-end. Low confidence reflects near-total reliance on secondary reporting and the absence of verifiable Russian production statistics. An accelerated Kazakhstan import agreement or redirected output from undamaged refineries could narrow the gap faster than the outage trajectory implies. If neither materializes, planners projecting Russian military aviation sortie rates have stronger grounds to treat domestic jet fuel as a binding operational constraint.
4 sources
  1. Russia is importing jet fuel from Belarus at almost four times last year rate after drone strikes knocked out Moscow main refinery - Meduza
  2. As Ukraine's Sanctions Deliver Results, Russia Starts Importing Fuel - UNITED24 Media
  3. Russia Is Grappling With Its Worst Nationwide Fuel Shortages In Years. Here's Where. - Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
  4. Russia Bans Jet Fuel Exports as Ukrainian Attacks Cripple Refining - OilPrice.com

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