OPEC+ Holds December Oil Output at 31 Million Bpd Unchanged as Iran War Disrupts Strait of Hormuz

Analysis
We have high confidence, based on consistent reporting across Bloomberg, The National, CNBC and InvestingLive on the meeting date, the mid-November capacity review and the monthly cadence, though the secondary outlets mostly echo the OPEC statement and Reuters rather than adding independent sourcing. The full 21-member group will likely announce 2027 quotas at or immediately after its November 29 meeting, by December 1. That decision will be tougher than Sunday's rollover, because the Hormuz closure has made capacity baselines uncertain and forecasters warn of a 2027 surplus if Gulf barrels return. The group may instead defer baselines, since the war has disrupted expansion projects and left production potential too uncertain to assign quotas. Current targets bind few producers, so shipping access, not OPEC+ policy, sets near-term supply, and with Brent near $118 and record vessel attacks the risk stays skewed toward disruption through November. Traders, refiners and Gulf finance ministries can price and budget against a 2027 framework if quotas arrive; otherwise they must hedge surplus-versus-disruption uncertainty into the new year.