Iran Conflict — 2026-03-18

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Doubles from Low Baseline as Iran Operates Selective Blockade

Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly doubled in recent days but remains critically low, with only eight non-Iranian-flagged ships detected via AIS on Monday. Iran's FM Araghchi described the strait as 'open, but closed to our enemies,' granting permission-based passage to friendly-state vessels -- effectively converting the strait into a political leverage tool rather than a blanket blockade.

Analysis
Prior digest tracked ~21 tankers/day; CNBC's AIS data now shows only 8 non-Iranian ships on March 18. The 'selective blockade' framing aligns with Qalibaf's Farsi-language statement that Hormuz 'will never return' to pre-war status -- suggesting a permanent strategic posture shift, not a negotiable wartime measure.