European Security — 2026-07-07

Trump Signals Openness to Selling Turkey F-35 Fighter Jets as Netanyahu Warns Against Regional Power Shift

BLUFFormal approval of F-35 sales to Turkey by end of 2026 remains unlikely, as statutory certification requirements and organized congressional opposition outweigh Trump's rhetorical openness to Erdogan.

President Trump said at the outset of his meeting with Turkish President Erdogan in Ankara that the US would "consider" selling F-35 fighter jets to Turkey and readmitting it to the F-35 program, from which Turkey was expelled in 2019 after buying Russia's S-400 air defense system 123. Vice President Vance said last week the Pentagon is reviewing certification steps required under US law before any sale could proceed 1. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told CNN he had personally urged Trump against the sale, calling Turkey's government "infected with the Muslim Brotherhood" and warning it would "destroy the power balance in the Middle East," while separately saying he and Trump remain aligned "eye-to-eye" on major issues 4. Eighteen House lawmakers led by Rep. Dina Titus sent a letter to House leadership Tuesday asking them to block any sale while Turkey retains the S-400 system 1.

Analysis
Formal approval of F-35 sales to Turkey by the end of 2026 is unlikely, given that certification steps required under US law remain incomplete and congressional resistance is organized and public. Analytic confidence is high, reflecting convergent reporting on the legal review process, Netanyahu's direct lobbying against the sale, and a formal congressional letter opposing any transfer while Turkey retains the S-400. Erdogan's push for a positive signal from the summit and Trump's favorable rhetoric toward Turkey create pressure for an announcement, but statutory certification and CAATSA-related sanctions exposure set a higher bar than a presidential statement of openness. The gap between Trump's rhetorical posture and the procedural steps needed for actual delivery is the key driver through year end.

4 sources