Africa — 2026-07-01

RSF Drone Strikes Intensify on Sudan El Obeid as IRC Warns of El Fasher Repeat for 600000 Residents

BLUFFull RSF encirclement of El Obeid by mid-August is unlikely, but sustained drone attrition on the Kosti supply corridor will degrade civilian water and fuel access well before any ground siege develops.

The IRC reported that RSF drone strikes on El Obeid, capital of North Kordofan with an estimated population of 600,000 including 100,000 IDPs, have intensified through June, targeting fuel depots, water stations, and trucks along the main supply route through Al Rahad, Um Raqaba, Tendelti, and Kosti 1. ACLED recorded 27 drone-strike events in Sheikan locality in June, the highest monthly total since the war began, though the strikes have not broken the military stalemate as SAF has reinforced positions with allied groups including the Sudan Shield Forces 2. IRC country director Richard Data and UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher both warned El Obeid risks becoming "another El-Fasher," citing disrupted water and electricity access, fuel shortages forcing jerry-can deliveries, and no established evacuation plan for civilians 13. IRC said nearly 2,000 people have already fled toward White Nile state in recent weeks 1.

Analysis
Sustained ACLED-documented drone intensity and SAF reinforcement with allied militias indicate RSF is very likely still building pressure rather than mounting an imminent ground assault, but full encirclement severing all remaining routes into El Obeid by August 15 is unlikely given SAF's holding of perimeter positions and continued eastward road access. Moderate confidence rests on the convergence of ACLED's tactical data with IRC and UN humanitarian reporting, though neither source can confirm RSF's operational intent. Continued strikes on the Kosti corridor will degrade fuel and water access even absent a battlefield breakthrough, accelerating displacement toward White Nile state before any siege materializes.

3 sources

Sudan: An imminent RSF offensive is pushing North Kordofan toward humanitarian catastrophe, warns IRC - International Rescue Committee
Sudan El Obeid faces El Fasher repeat amid RSF drone strikes - The New Arab
UN aid chief warns El-Obeid risks becoming 'another El-Fasher' as drone strikes escalate in Sudan - Arab News