Nuclear & Arms Control — 2026-11-04

P5 Nuclear-Weapon States Hold Quiet Consultations as Trump Pushes Denuclearization Talks

BLUFFormal US-China nuclear arms control talks are very unlikely to materialize by the end of November, as Beijing has publicly rejected trilateral negotiations and Washington has yet to table any concrete proposal.

Officials from the five NPT nuclear-weapon states met in New York the week of October 5 for a P5 process consultation, and none of the governments has publicly described the outcome, Arms Control Today reported, citing anonymous diplomats 1. On October 15 Trump told Newsmax the US is talking with Russia and China about "denuclearization" 12; the Chinese Foreign Ministry said the next day that asking China to join trilateral negotiations "at this stage" is neither fair, reasonable nor realistic 13. On October 19 Trump said he would discuss weapons and denuclearization if Xi wants a meeting at the APEC summit, and the Kremlin said no specific proposals on such a meeting had been discussed 13. Assistant Secretary Christopher Yeaw said October 20 that Russia and China had shown "initial signs of openness," while the administration has not publicly outlined any arms control proposals 1.

Analysis
Beijing's October 16 rejection of trilateral talks "at this stage" meets a US side that has tabled no arms control proposal for China to accept. Washington's confrontational UN posture on nuclear testing, including its no vote on the CTBT resolution, further weakens the P5 consultations as a venue for progress. The US and China are very unlikely to publicly announce an agreement to begin formal bilateral or trilateral nuclear arms control talks between November 5 and November 30. Confidence is high, resting on consistent Chinese public refusals across independent outlets, with the Arms Control Association, Al Jazeera and The Irish Times each reporting separately and no single wire driving coverage, and on the absence of any stated US proposal or scheduled talks. The APEC summit in Shenzhen is the main indicator, since a Trump-Xi exchange could yield language on strategic stability but not a formal negotiating track. Trump's claims of talks and Yeaw's "initial signs of openness" may instead reflect quiet channels that produce a surprise announcement there, with Beijing's refusals serving as bargaining posture. Without a track, the post-New START environment stays unconstrained and European states keep hedging on independent deterrence.

3 sources

Nuclear-Weapon States Consult as Trump Talks Denuclearization - Arms Control Association
US in 'denuclearisation' talks with Russia and China: Trump - Al Jazeera
Trump wants to talk nuclear disarmament with China and Russia. Beijing does not - The Irish Times