Global Economy — 2026-04-13

Oil Markets Surge Past $100 as US Blockade Compounds Hormuz Crisis, IEA Warns of Worsening Shortfall

Brent crude hovered near $100 per barrel following the US blockade activation, with analysts warning prices could spike further. The IEA chief warned that April will be "much worse than March" for oil supply, with one-third of 80 damaged Middle East energy sites classified as severely hit. Roughly 20% of global oil and gas normally transits the strait. The EIA projects Brent peaking at $115/barrel in Q2 2026 before easing. Wall Street edged up as investors bet on a US-Iran breakthrough, but the IEA reported global oil markets face the largest supply disruption in history.

Analysis
The IEA's characterization of the largest supply disruption in history contradicts the relatively moderate $100/barrel price, implying markets price in eventual resolution. The EIA's $115 Q2 peak projection assumes partial normalization; if the blockade holds and Iran retaliates against Gulf oil infrastructure, the ceiling is substantially higher. Wall Street optimism (betting on a breakthrough) and the IEA's severity assessment represent a gap between market pricing and supply fundamentals. One-third of 80 damaged energy sites classified as severely hit is a new data point that has not been independently verified.

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