Iran Conflict — 2026-04-05

Iran Exempts Iraqi Shipping From Strait of Hormuz Blockade, Potentially Releasing 3M Barrels Daily

Iran's military command declared Iraqi shipping exempt from Strait of Hormuz restrictions, calling Iraq a brotherly country and limiting the blockade to enemy states. The exemption could release up to 3 million barrels per day of Iraqi oil cargoes. However, an Iraqi official cautioned the practical impact depends on whether shipping companies will risk entering the strait. The move exploits the close Shia-majority ties between the two neighbors and could fracture the coalition pressure campaign by offering selective relief. Broader Hormuz transits showed a slight uptick, suggesting some commercial vessels are testing the waters.

Analysis
Iran is using selective Hormuz access as a coercive diplomacy tool, rewarding neutrality and punishing adversaries. If Iraqi oil flows resume, it relieves approximately 15% of the global supply deficit while demonstrating that Iran controls who benefits from the strait. This fractures the unified pressure campaign by offering countries an incentive to distance from the US coalition.
2 sources
  1. Iran says Iraqi ships can pass Strait of Hormuz as transits tick up - Al Jazeera
  2. Iran says Iraqi ships are allowed to use Strait of Hormuz - Fortune

View in full brief →

UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE