Europe — 2026-10-01

Russia Plans Record 17.1 Trillion Ruble Defense Budget for 2027 With 27 Percent Increase Over Prior Plan

BLUFRussia's planned 27 percent defense spending surge to 17.1 trillion rubles in 2027 will likely reach the Duma by mid-October, confirming the Kremlin's willingness to absorb rising deficits and debt rather than scale back the war.

Reuters reported on Monday, citing Russian government documents it reviewed, that Russia plans to spend 17.1 trillion rubles on defense in 2027, about 27 percent above the 13.5 trillion rubles originally budgeted 12. The documents put total defense spending at 50 trillion rubles over the next three years 23. The Moscow Times, relaying Reuters, said the actual 2026 defense figure is classified and some military spending sits in other budget lines 2. The documents also raised the 2026 deficit estimate to 3.2 percent of GDP from 1.6 percent and set 2027 state debt at 21.7 percent of GDP 2. The government is expected to submit the draft budget to parliament by October 1 2.

Analysis
Russia's draft 2027-2029 budget will likely reach the State Duma between October 1 and October 15 with 2027 defense appropriations of at least 16 trillion rubles, because the Kremlin is choosing to fund the war through higher borrowing, National Wealth Fund drawdowns, and new taxes rather than curtail it. The doubled 2026 deficit estimate and 2027 debt above the 20 percent safety line will tighten room for civilian spending. Confidence is moderate: the evidence is one exclusive Reuters leak that other outlets repeat without confirming, and classified 2026 totals and defense spending in other budget lines obscure the baseline. The 17.1 trillion figure may be a ceiling the Finance Ministry trims, or may include reclassified items that inflate the increase. Sanctions planners and Ukraine's backers should plan for sustained Russian force generation through 2027, unless fiscal strain forces real cuts.

6 sources

Exclusive-Russia raises 2027 military spending by 27%, budget documents show - Reuters (via Investing.com)
Russia Raises 2027 Military Spending by 27%, Budget Documents Show - The Moscow Times
Reuters: Russia plans record defense spending of 17 trillion rubles in 2027, 27% more than previously budgeted - Meduza
Russia Set to Surge Defense Spending by 27% as War Escalates - Bloomberg
Exclusive-Russia raises 2027 military spending by 27%, budget documents show - Reuters (via Investing.com)
Exclusive-Russia raises 2027 military spending by 27%, budget documents show - Reuters