Global Economy — 2026-04-12

Hormuz Disruption Deepens Global Economic Strain as UNCTAD Warns of 2.6% Growth Slowdown

UNCTAD reported that ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz have collapsed 95% from around 130 per day in February to just 6 in March, projecting global growth to slow from 2.9% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026 and merchandise trade to decelerate from 4.7% to 1.5-2.5%. Brent crude is rising above $90/bbl with shipping and insurance costs compounding inflationary pressure. The disruption has disproportionately hit developing economies, with currencies weakening 2.9% in Africa, 2.3% in Latin America, and 1.0% in developing Asia.

Analysis
The 95% transit collapse is the worst maritime chokepoint disruption since the 1956 Suez Crisis, but with broader systemic impact because modern supply chains have no redundancy for 20% of global oil. UNCTAD's 2.6% global growth projection assumes no further escalation; Trump's blockade announcement postdates this assessment and likely worsens the outlook. The disproportionate currency impact on developing economies (Africa 2.9%, LatAm 2.3%) signals where political instability from economic stress is most likely to materialize in the next quarter.

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