Indo-Pacific Security — 2026-05-04

China Stages Naval Drills as 17,000 Allied Troops Conduct Largest-Ever Balikatan Exercise Near Taiwan

The United States and Philippines launched Balikatan 2026 on April 20, with more than 17,000 troops from seven nations conducting exercises through May 8. Canada, France, New Zealand, and Japan joined as active participants for the first time, with Japan contributing 1,400 personnel who will fire Type 88 anti-ship cruise missiles off northern Luzon; the exercise also includes, for the first time, maritime strike drills on Itbayat Island, 155 kilometers from Taiwan. The PLA Southern Theatre Command announced its naval fleet had "recently" conducted drills east of Luzon as "a necessary action in response to the current regional situation," led by Type 055 destroyer Zunyi. The South China Morning Post reported satellite imagery showed approximately 14 large vessels in the drill formation, apparently including the Liaoning carrier.

Analysis
Japan's Type 88 anti-ship missiles off northern Luzon and inaugural maritime strikes on Itbayat Island, 155 kilometers from Taiwan, signal that allied contingency planning now explicitly covers Taiwan Strait approaches. France and Canada's active participation narrows Beijing's ability to frame any Taiwan-adjacent scenario as a bilateral US-China dispute. China's carrier group deployment east of Luzon, possibly a pre-planned Southern Theatre rotation Beijing chose to label reactive per a single SCMP report with the Liaoning's presence unverified, establishes a counter-signaling logic Beijing will likely feel compelled to sustain. Additional PLA exercises near the Philippines are likely within 60 days.

1 sources

China stages navy drill as US and Philippines embark on Balikatan 2026 - South China Morning Post