Indo-Pacific — 2026-05-27

Five Eyes Allies Boost Taiwan Strait Naval Transits as US Takes Different Route

BLUFFive Eyes allies are absorbing the diplomatic costs of Taiwan Strait signaling that Washington has shed, giving Beijing more relationships to manage while preserving collective Western pressure without direct US exposure.

A report released May 26 by the Beijing-based South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative recorded five Taiwan Strait transits in 2025 by six warships from Australia, Canada, the UK, and New Zealand 12. The South China Morning Post reported that the same SCSPI findings showed the US military scaled back and kept a low profile for its own strait transits last year 3. Across the Western Pacific in 2025, SCSPI logged 48 non-US warships for 610 ship-days, including aircraft carrier strike group deployments by France and Britain, and approximately 1,500 military aircraft sorties by Australia, Canada, India, and others 124. SCSPI director Hu Bo described Australia as the "most aggressive" extra-regional actor, citing two intrusions of Xisha Islands airspace by Australian P-8A patrol aircraft in February and October 2025 12.

Analysis
The US-ally divergence on Taiwan Strait transits distributes diplomatic friction costs away from Washington while sustaining collective pressure, expanding the bilateral relationships through which China must manage strait tensions. Washington may instead be deliberately encouraging partners to absorb visible friction while preserving its own operational flexibility for higher-stakes contingencies. Australia's "most aggressive" designation by Beijing-based SCSPI, whose institutional alignment limits its weight and whose findings PRC state media amplified without independent corroboration, feeds targeted diplomatic pressure on Canberra. That designation also tells PLA commanders how to calibrate intercept responses to future P-8A encounters.

5 sources

Transits through Taiwan Straits by Australian, Canadian and other extra-regional navies rose sharply in 2025: Chinese think tank - Global Times
Increase in western Pacific military activities noted - China Daily
As Five Eyes allies boost Taiwan Strait transits, why is US going a different route? - South China Morning Post
Non-U.S. extra-regional countries sustain military build-up in Western Pacific: report - People's Daily Online
Report on the Military Activities of Non-US Extra-Regional Countries in the Western Pacific in 2025 - South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI)