Economic Security — 2026-10-25

US Treasury Proposes Outbound Investment Screening Rule Targeting Five Countries

BLUFFirms with China, Russia, or Iran exposure should plan around existing screening rules through early 2027, as Treasury is very unlikely to finalize the COINS Act rule by year-end given a December 7 comment deadline.

Treasury issued a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on October 22 to implement the Comprehensive Outbound Investment National Security (COINS) Act, adding biotechnology to the law's five listed technology sectors 1. Blockonomi reported the draft names China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and Cuba, omitting Venezuela, which Congress had listed 2. AP reported it applies only to investments above $50,000 and excludes many financial investments, including stock purchases 3; Blockonomi added that it bans specified AI investments and requires advance notice for other covered sectors, with comments open until December 7 2. China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said the measures were discriminatory and that Beijing would take necessary measures to safeguard its interests 3.

Analysis
The December 7 comment deadline leaves under four weeks to review submissions on scope, definitions, notification content and penalties. Treasury added biotechnology on its own authority and dropped Venezuela, so both choices will draw comment and legal scrutiny. Treasury is very unlikely to publish a final COINS Act rule by December 31, 2026. Confidence is high because the Treasury notice confirms the rule is still proposed and secondary reporting on the deadline is consistent, though the absence of legal analysis leaves the interpretation of scope thin. Treasury may instead treat the program as a priority and compress review, since the 2023 and 2025 rules supply a drafting base and the administration wants a visible China measure. Funds and companies with China, Russia or Iran exposure should expect the January 2025 rules to govern into 2027 while building portfolio screening now. A final rule by year-end would force immediate stand-up of prohibited-transaction screening and notification processes.

4 sources

Treasury Issues Proposed Rule to Implement Comprehensive Outbound Investment National Security Act - U.S. Department of the Treasury
Outbound Investment Rule Targets Five Countries for Tech Deals - Blockonomi
Treasury proposes rule to curb high-tech investments in China and other adversaries - PBS NewsHour (AP)
OISP 2.0: Treasury Previews Broader Outbound Investment Regime Under the COINS Act - Ropes & Gray